not because of that reverse - punters dont be

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Its almost Christmas, which can mean only one thing - its time for that other Randwick mile, the Villiers Stakes.Though this Group II lacks the overall quality of its more esteemed cousins, the Doncaster and the Epsom, this years renewal is at least as competitive.Its worth noting this is the first meeting at headquarters for seven weeks. The rail is in the true position, so one would expect the track to play fairly, but with so much rain about you never know. It will pay to watch closely the first few races in case any bias is evident.The pattern of the day will be particularly pertinent for the races top hope, Fabrizio. This free-wheeler is the likely leader, though he showed he could take a sit if required when winning over 1800m at Flemington on Cup day.Fabrizio has been a real find, with his only blemish coming in the Epsom when going too hard for his own good. Progressive, in-form, fresh: the favourite should win, though be wary about taking anything much shorter than the $3 on offer with UBET.Dibayani ran a blinder in the Epsom and was all over the winner until Hauraki swooped late. Hes up in weight and finds it hard to win, but comes here off a let-up and is an each-way chance from a good draw.Of the others, Hazzabeel, Amovatio and Pajaro should be respected on the back of solid efforts in the Festival Stakes, while 2014 winner Rudy will relish the soft ground and should give a good account at long odds.Recommended bet: Cautious about taking the shorts on Fabrizio, so buy some insurance and anchor him in a quinella with numbers 1,2,6,8,11,13,15.Best BetFlemington Race 7, No.10 Gallic Chieftain @ $2.90 with UBETA former French galloper who simply must be followed now that he has hit his straps in this country.Ran two respectable races since resuming for Darren Weir, but went bang third-up when running away with a Benchmark 78 on Pakenham Cup day. Ran scintillating time that day when trouncing a horse called Goathland, who then did this column a good turn when thrashing a decent field last week at Flemington.Gallic Chieftain could be very, very good. Dont worry about the wide gate. In fact, be thankful for it - his price is longer than it should be as a result. Has panels on this lot and should just win.Over the oddsRandwick Race 6, No.7 Manuel @ $4.80 with UBETTempted to make this one Best Bet II but the rain in Sydney is tempering enthusiasm somewhat.Its not that Manuel definitely doesnt go on rain-affected tracks - he does have a second to handy sprinter Showpero on a Soft 6 to his name - more that he is very effective on top of the ground.Regardless, this colt is finally starting to put it all together after a couple of costly defeats. Obviously showed a great deal at home as he was sent out at $1.80 on debut in a Listed race at Flemington two Octobers ago.It took until last month for Manuel to get on the scoresheet and he did so emphatiically, winning a Geelong maiden by 10 lengths.dddddddddddd That followed a totally luckless first-up fourth down the straight on Cup day. Whatever happened during this gallopers mid-year spell, it has worked.Tony McEvoy went very close to winning this race last year with Stoker. Manuel is a better galloper and can make amends.Randwick Race 8, No.9 Shiraz @ $12 with UBETPrepared to forgive this geldings first-up flop when fancied by yours truly. Actually wasnt beaten that far that day by Kuro (who reopposes here) and trainer Kim Waugh conceded her recent acquisition might have been a run short.The gelding is still fresh and that is a big tick, but the factor that really swings the tide in his favour is Sydneys big wet. As befitting a galloper named after a drink, Shiraz excels in the wet.Drawn out but that could well prove the place to be if the fence chops up. Looks a really viable each-way bet.Randwick Race 5, No.3 Destinys Kiss @ $8 with UBET Another who needs a wet track, hence this stayer is now firmly in the reckoning for the Christmas Cup.Has won over two miles, so the fact he placed first-up over 1400m and last start ran a cheeky fourth at this level over 2000m is ample proof that all is well.Should be set to peak fifth-up and will relish the step up to 2400m, as well as the soft ground. Overs at the present quote.Lay of the day Randwick Race 9, No.2 Sir Plush @ $5 with UBET Made this one our best bet a couple of weeks back and while he ran very well, he still didnt win.Sir Plush is in the sin bin this week not because of that reverse - punters dont bear grudges, do they? - but because he is a duffer in the wet.Needs the track bone dry and he just wont get that on Saturday. If the rain continues he might not even run, but if he does hell need a personality transplant if he is to win.Under the oddsRandwick Race 3, No.8 She Will Reign @ $1.95 with UBETWon a Kembla Grange maiden by eight lengths on debut so is sure to be very popular with punters.Dont particularly like knocking gallopers who are yet to disappoint, but equally am reluctant to get sucked in at the shorts off just one run. Do we know she beat much at Kembla?Do we know shell like soft ground? Shes drawn stall two, so will the fence be the right part of the track?We cant answer yes to any of these questions, so why on earth should we take odds-on about this filly?Multi of the weekendFlemington Race 3, No.1 Miss Wonderland - WIN @ $2Flemington Race 7, No.10 Gallic Chieftain - WIN @ $2.90Flemington Race 8, No.3 Mihany - PLACE @ $1.48Randwick Race 3, No.1 Vinland - PLACE @ $1.56Randwick Race 5, No.3 Destinys Kiss - PLACE @ $2.65Randwick Race 8, No.2 Shiraz - PLACE @ $3.75Doomben Race 7, No.7 Too Good To Refuse - PLACE @ $1.44Multi price: $191.63 with UBET ' ' '